Ukraine, Russia and the Lessons for Africa: A Summary of Greg Mills and Ray Hartley’s “No Sunshine if Ukraine Falls”

Photo: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated the servicemen on the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, presented state awards, battle flags, honorary ribbons and conferred honorary titles upon military units, dated December 6, 2023, by President Of Ukraine from Україна, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.


This summary is based on Greg Mills and Ray Hartley’s article entitled, “No Sunshine if Ukraine Falls.”


The Difference Between Ukraine and Russia

The war in Ukraine has made one thing increasingly clear: Ukraine is not Russia.

The two countries share a Soviet past, but their political trajectories have sharply diverged. Russia has consolidated power around the Kremlin, restricted dissent and weakened independent institutions. Ukraine, despite its political imperfections, has developed a far more open and participatory political culture.

The contrast was on display recently when Ukrainians took to the streets in Kyiv to protest government decisions. President Zelenskyy listened and changed course. Such public pressure, and a government’s willingness to respond to it, would be difficult to imagine in today’s Russia.


Why It Matters

The authors argue that this political difference has tangible consequences on the battlefield. Ukraine has mobilised its citizens, encouraged private sector innovation and developed new military capabilities at extraordinary speed. Its advances in drones and artificial intelligence demonstrate how quickly a society can adapt when initiative and innovation are allowed to flourish. That capacity to innovate has become a critical source of Ukraine’s resilience and a defining advantage in its war with Russia.


The African Lesson

For Africa, the warning is particularly relevant. Democracies do not always collapse through coups. More often, elected leaders gradually weaken institutions, erode accountability and change the rules to protect their hold on power. Over time, the distinction between political control and economic privilege can disappear.

Ukraine’s experience raises a question that extends far beyond the war: what happens when citizens have the freedom and confidence to challenge power, and what happens when they lose it?

For Mills and Hartley, Ukraine’s fight is about more than territory. It is also about political agency, accountable government and the freedoms that allow societies to determine their own future. For a deeper analysis of why the war in Ukraine matters far beyond its borders, and the lessons it holds for Africa, read the full article here.

Ukraine’s Rapid Rise as a World-Leading Military Producer

Photo: Ukrainian FPV loitering munition with RPG-7 ammo, dated April 29, 2024, by АрміяІнформ – Source

This summary is based on Taras Kuzio’s article, “Russia’s War Transforms Ukraine into a World-Leading Military Producer.”

Russia’s invasion has transformed Ukraine into a global leader in defense innovation. Since 2022, Ukraine’s defense sector has grown 350%, producing drones, missiles, and autonomous ground vehicles at unprecedented speed. Private companies drive innovation, creating AI-driven drone swarms and low-cost, battle-tested systems that give Ukraine asymmetric advantages on the battlefield.

Initiatives like Brave1 and Defense City link Ukrainian firms with Western investors and allow NATO partners to test weapons in combat conditions. Europe and the U.S. are investing heavily, with joint production of drones, missiles, and robotics, making Ukraine central to European security and rearmament.

Ukraine’s agile defense industry combines battlefield experience, cutting-edge technology, and international partnerships, positioning the country as a key pillar of Europe’s defense for years to come.

Europe’s Response to Russia’s Drone Threat

Based on reporting from ABC News and BBC News.

Photo Credit and Description: Ursula von der Leyen & Mette Frederiksen talking during a meeting of the Coalition of the willing in Paris, France – 2025 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ursula_von_der_Leyen_%26_Mette_Frederiksen_talking_during_a_meeting_of_the_Coalition_of_the_willing_in_Paris,France-2025(1).jpg)

A Summit in a Time of Escalation

European leaders gathered in Copenhagen this week to respond to Russia’s expanding hybrid warfare campaign. The summit took place just days after drones disrupted airports in Denmark and followed multiple Russian airspace violations over Poland, Estonia, and Germany.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told leaders that Europe’s security is inseparable from Ukraine’s. As ABC News reported, he urged Europe to “step up” its support, warning that Moscow’s attacks are aimed at the entire continent, not only Ukraine.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen framed the issue starkly, declaring that “from a European perspective there is only one country willing to threaten us and that is Russia, and therefore we need a very strong answer back” (BBC News).

The Drone Wall and European Airspace

One of the central proposals discussed was the creation of a “drone wall.” As BBC News reported, this would be a multi-layered system to detect and destroy Russian drones quickly and cheaply. Allies including Poland, the UK, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United States provided Denmark with anti-drone support during the summit. A German frigate docked in Copenhagen to reinforce air defenses, while Sweden supplied radar systems.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for deterrence “at scale and at speed” (BBC News), and the Commission is advancing plans for joint procurement and expanded defense industries. A €150 billion European defense fund is under discussion, with the UK and Canada expected to participate.

The Eastern Flank and Long-Term Defense

Beyond drones, leaders reviewed broader security measures. The “Eastern Flank Watch” initiative will strengthen air, land, and sea defenses against hybrid warfare and Russia’s shadow fleet. According to BBC News, a long-term road map is being drawn up to make Europe’s defense industries “2030-ready.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either” (BBC News). His statement reflected the growing consensus that Europe must take far greater responsibility for its own security.

Divisions remain, however. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban rejected Ukraine’s sovereignty and continued to oppose its EU membership, underscoring how political fractures can weaken collective defense efforts.

Reflection

The Copenhagen summit highlights Europe’s belated recognition that it is in the midst of the most dangerous security environment since 1945. Russia’s use of hybrid warfare, particularly drones, is not random harassment but a strategy designed to destabilize the continent. The Centre for Eastern European Democracy sees several urgent lessons:

  • Hybrid war is now the frontline. Drones, airspace incursions, and cyber disruption are integral to Russia’s campaign. Europe must treat these not as isolated events but as coordinated aggression.
  • Security is indivisible. Attacks in Denmark, Poland, or Estonia are not local issues. They are stress tests for all of Europe.
  • Cost matters. Russia spends thousands on drones that force Europe to spend millions on defenses. Innovation and efficiency must drive Europe’s response.
  • Unity is critical. Political divisions, such as Hungary’s stance on Ukraine, provide Moscow with strategic opportunities. Europe must close these gaps.
  • Ukraine’s survival is Europe’s survival. Support for Kyiv is not an act of generosity but the foundation of Europe’s own security.

Europe has entered a decisive decade. The question is whether its leaders will move quickly enough to build the defenses that tomorrow’s battlefield will demand. Delay and division will invite further aggression. Resolve and unity can deny Moscow the ability to destabilize Europe through hybrid means.

Open Letter to Noam Chomsky (and other like-minded intellectuals) on the Russia-Ukraine war

We are a group of Ukrainian academic economists who were grieved by a series of your recent interviews and commentaries on the Russian war on Ukraine. We believe that your public opinion on this matter is counter-productive to bringing an end to the unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine and all the deaths and suffering it has brought into our home country.

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