Ukraine Alerts Allies to Possible Russian Staged Attack Timed Around Orthodox Christmas

Photo: Architectural landmark Church of the Holy Trinity in Ramenskoye, dated December 31, 2024, by Artyom Svetlov

This summary is based on Olga Lautman’s article, “Ukraine Warns Russia Is Preparing a Mass Casualty False Flag Attack Ahead of Orthodox Christmas.”

Warning of a Planned Provocation

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned on January 2 that Russia may be preparing a large scale false flag attack with civilian casualties, likely timed for Orthodox Christmas on January 7. Ukrainian intelligence states that Russian special services have made observable preparations for a provocation designed to exploit the date’s religious and symbolic significance, amplify fear and grief, and rapidly assign blame to Ukraine.

Symbolic Targets and Narrative Control

The potential attack could target a religious or other highly symbolic site, either inside Russia or in Russian occupied Ukrainian territory. Choosing such a target would allow the Kremlin to portray any escalation as defensive retaliation and quickly push a propaganda narrative during a moment of shock and grief.

Disinformation and Fabricated Evidence

The warning comes amid a broader Russian disinformation campaign aimed at undermining U.S. talks. It follows Moscow’s late December false claim that a Ukrainian drone targeted Putin’s residence, an allegation denied by Ukraine and rejected by the CIA due to a lack of evidence. Despite this, the Kremlin continues to promote the claim to condition the information space for further escalation.

Ukrainian intelligence also warned that Russia may attempt to plant fragments of Western made drones at the scene of any staged attack to fabricate evidence of Ukrainian or NATO involvement. Officials stressed that this tactic has been used before to reinforce false narratives and overwhelm initial skepticism.

International Caution and Historical Pattern

The warning is reinforced by the U.S. State Department’s renewed do not travel advisory for Russia, citing terrorism risks, wrongful detention, and severely limited U.S. consular assistance. Ukrainian officials emphasize that this assessment is not alarmist but historically grounded. Russia has repeatedly used terror, false narratives, and staged provocations to justify violence and sabotage diplomatic efforts, particularly when facing international pressure.

Why Ukraine Is Essential to Preserving Global Democracy and Security

Photo: President Donald Trump hosts a multilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine and European leaders, dated August 18, 2025, by The White House

This summary is based on the article “Tragedy of the West: Sacrificing Ukraine and the Rules Based Order.”

The article argues that Russia’s war on Ukraine is not simply a regional conflict. It is part of a broader assault on the global liberal order in which Moscow uses energy blackmail, corruption, propaganda, organized crime, hybrid warfare, and terrorism to undermine democracy and Western security across Europe.

The authors warn that by failing to respond with the seriousness the threat demands, particularly as some Western leaders now consider a peace framework that would force Ukraine into surrender, the West risks legitimizing aggression, rewarding the aggressor, and weakening long standing international norms.

They emphasize that Ukraine now stands as the final frontline defender of global freedom, human dignity, and international law.

As a result, the authors call for a decisive Western strategy that includes maximal sanctions, the seizure of Russian assets, the supply of long range weapons, the prosecution of war criminals, full support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and the possibility of direct European military involvement to protect civilians and infrastructure.

In essence, the article warns that this is not merely a war over territory. It is a test of whether the rules, rights, and freedoms that define the post war international order will endure.

Inside the Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Why Power Grids Are the New Battlefield

Photo: Flag, Ukraine, War image from Pixabay by ELG21

This summary is based on Diane Francis’s analysis in her Substack article “Russia’s Achilles’ Heel.”

Russia and Ukraine’s conflict has shifted into an “Energy War.” With the air campaign intensifying and the ground war largely stalled, Kyiv is striking Russia’s power plants, substations, and high-voltage links to exploit Moscow’s weak, poorly interconnected grid and its limited ability to replace damaged turbines—a vulnerability made worse by Western loopholes in sanctions and by countries that continue to buy Russian oil.

Those precision drone and missile attacks have already caused cascading blackouts, even disrupting Moscow and rail links after strikes hundreds of kilometres away. Ukraine’s ties to the European power system give it an “extension cord” that Russia lacks, allowing Kyiv to sustain its own grid while destabilizing its adversary’s.

The result is a dangerous new leverage point. By targeting generation and transmission outside major cities, Ukraine can plunge large Russian regions into cold and darkness this coming winter without directly attacking the Kremlin. This strategy raises the stakes—and the risk of escalation—as both sides turn energy itself into a weapon of war.