Ukraine Alerts Allies to Possible Russian Staged Attack Timed Around Orthodox Christmas

Photo: Architectural landmark Church of the Holy Trinity in Ramenskoye, dated December 31, 2024, by Artyom Svetlov

This summary is based on Olga Lautman’s article, “Ukraine Warns Russia Is Preparing a Mass Casualty False Flag Attack Ahead of Orthodox Christmas.”

Warning of a Planned Provocation

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned on January 2 that Russia may be preparing a large scale false flag attack with civilian casualties, likely timed for Orthodox Christmas on January 7. Ukrainian intelligence states that Russian special services have made observable preparations for a provocation designed to exploit the date’s religious and symbolic significance, amplify fear and grief, and rapidly assign blame to Ukraine.

Symbolic Targets and Narrative Control

The potential attack could target a religious or other highly symbolic site, either inside Russia or in Russian occupied Ukrainian territory. Choosing such a target would allow the Kremlin to portray any escalation as defensive retaliation and quickly push a propaganda narrative during a moment of shock and grief.

Disinformation and Fabricated Evidence

The warning comes amid a broader Russian disinformation campaign aimed at undermining U.S. talks. It follows Moscow’s late December false claim that a Ukrainian drone targeted Putin’s residence, an allegation denied by Ukraine and rejected by the CIA due to a lack of evidence. Despite this, the Kremlin continues to promote the claim to condition the information space for further escalation.

Ukrainian intelligence also warned that Russia may attempt to plant fragments of Western made drones at the scene of any staged attack to fabricate evidence of Ukrainian or NATO involvement. Officials stressed that this tactic has been used before to reinforce false narratives and overwhelm initial skepticism.

International Caution and Historical Pattern

The warning is reinforced by the U.S. State Department’s renewed do not travel advisory for Russia, citing terrorism risks, wrongful detention, and severely limited U.S. consular assistance. Ukrainian officials emphasize that this assessment is not alarmist but historically grounded. Russia has repeatedly used terror, false narratives, and staged provocations to justify violence and sabotage diplomatic efforts, particularly when facing international pressure.

NewsGuard Report: Kremlin-Backed ‘Pravda’ Network Infiltrates AI Chatbots with Russian Disinformation

Photo: Artificial Intelligence, Brain, Think — royalty-free stock image from Pixabay by Gerd Altmann

This summary is from the NewsGuard Report.

A NewsGuard investigation revealed that a Kremlin-backed disinformation network called Pravda has deliberately infiltrated Western generative AI systems with pro-Russian propaganda by flooding the internet with millions of fake news articles designed to manipulate large language models.

The audit of ten leading AI chatbots—including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot—found that they echoed false narratives from the Pravda network 33% of the time, often citing Pravda’s fabricated stories as legitimate sources.

Originating in Crimea and run by the IT firm TigerWeb, Pravda operates across 150 domains in 49 countries, using aggressive search engine optimization (SEO) to dominate online results and “groom” AI models by saturating their data inputs with disinformation.

The campaign, described as “LLM grooming,” seeks to bias AI outputs toward Moscow’s geopolitical agenda, a tactic openly endorsed by former U.S. fugitive turned Russian propagandist John Mark Dougan.

Though the network has little organic human audience, it effectively exploits AI training mechanisms to launder Kremlin propaganda through ostensibly neutral chatbots, posing serious long-term political, social, and technological risks.